Why not both? Or why even establish a winner? When we are so interconnected. The US can not be a global leader until other nation-states accept it. When the US is the global leader, it does not need to dictate its positions. It can in fact just have its opinion or pass legislation, and the world will take notice. It does not matter if other countries will follow suit as much as its noticing the US and her voice. To illustrate, during President Ahmadinejad’s speech addressing the UN’s General Assembly in which he discussed The US and 9/11, the US walked out on the assembly. Right when the US delegates left, Israeli and EU delegates followed suite.
So tell me, how can there be a winner when we are so interdependent and we are evolving into each other everyday.